Sunday, August 23, 2009

What Would Warren Do? - The Atlantic

Came across this article in the September issue of Atlantic Monthly.  I like how it begs the question, "what will we do without Warren??"  Below are a couple excerpts.

"...Buffett is the one who has, more than anyone else, refined and redefined value investing for a new era. He is the one who stopped hunting for superbargains and started buying exceptional companies, even if they weren’t available at fire-sale prices. But what makes a company “exceptional” is idiosyncratic. Warren Buffett is exceptionally good at asking the right questions; the speech he gave in 1999 explaining why he wasn’t investing in the tech boom is astonishing for its foresight. But teaching someone to ask the right questions is much easier said than done..."

"...When Buffett lectures on his craft, his precepts often sound less like investing rules than like the distilled essence of bourgeois virtue. Don’t speculate. Don’t risk money you can’t afford to lose. Don’t try to ride market trends. Don’t try to get rich quick. Don’t panic when the price drops. If there are no good buys, don’t buy anything. Above all, ignore what other people are saying. If everyone jumped off a bridge, would you jump too?"Right now, the academic literature suggests that value investing has a modest advantage over a broader market strategy. Better information, more widely available, may continue to erode that edge. But the principles of prudence, patience, and thrift will always, in the end, offer a better chance at outsize returns. The question is whether, once Saint Warren passes, his followers will find the courage to stick to them."


http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200909/warren-buffett

Bloomberg.com: Buffett Loses to Desmarais as Power Exceeds Return

"“Power Corporation is like an iceberg -- large and largely invisible,” says David Beatty, a professor of strategic management at the University of Toronto. Beatty says he begins one of his lectures by asking master’s degree students about the careers of Jack Welch, the former CEO of General Electric Co., and Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Then he flashes a photo of the elder Desmarais.

“None of them knows who it is,” Beatty says. “And I say, ‘It’s Paul Desmarais, and he’s done better than the other guys.’”

Those who bet on Power Corp. in the 15 years from 1993 to 2008 earned slightly more than investors in Omaha, Nebraska- based Berkshire Hathaway, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Power Corp.’s average annual return in the period, including reinvested dividends, was 14.5 percent. Berkshire, which pays no dividend, returned an average of 14.1 percent. The comparison is in local currencies."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aEl4wizkuSTQ#

Capitalism: A Love Story - TRAILER



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Sprott.com: Eric Sprott's August letter to his shareholders

"In the world of government stimulus, the size and speed of the injections are critical to their impact. Once the taps are turned on full bore, any reduction to the stimulus will have almost the same negative impact as removing it entirely. We are now seeing this reduction on three fronts: the Federal Reserve threatening to close the window on its 'quantitative easing’ program; the tax cuts and transfers already paid out to US citizens; and the Chinese banks now reining in their excessive lending. In trader terms - we will soon have no "dry powder" left to burn.

In their 2008 annual report, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) recently reviewed previous banking crises and suggested that a sustainable recovery would require the banking system to take losses, dispose of non-performing assets, eliminate excess capacity and rebuild capital bases. The BIS concludes that “these conditions are not being met and any stimulus will therefore only lead to a temporary pick up in growth followed by protracted stagnation.”10 We agree wholeheartedly, and have seen nothing yet to suggest that the real problems plaguing the world’s banking system are being addressed. In our view, the threat of a double dip recession remains real. When the stimulus effects wear off there will be nothing left to replace the artificial demand they have induced. Investors should be prepared for what awaits us beyond the stimulus."

http://www.sprott.com/Docs/MarketsataGlance/August_2009.pdf

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